sábado, 24 de noviembre de 2007

Contagio de gigantes: China fears devastation to exports.

Según Bruno Seminario la depresión en USA ha comenzado a afectar las exportaciones de China y cuando termine de manifestarse este efecto, se reducirá la tasa de crecimiento de ese país. Según el economista, "Cuando esto ocurra, también caerá la demanda y los precios de todos los metales. No es necesario decir que este evento puede reducir sustancialmente las exportaciones del Perú: no me sorprenderia en modo alguno que se produzca una caída de casi 20 por ciento, a los precios actuales, es decir, que el Perú pierda en los próximos dos años entre 5000 y 6000 millones de dólares. Si esto evento llegara a materializarse, podríamos enfrentar la deflación en dólares más drástica de los últimos 20 años. Debió preparse el gobierno para enfrentar esta eventualidad, pero es un poco tarde". Según Reservamoral.org el "gran contagio matará a los grandes dinosaurios" y propondrá la reconfiguración del mundo en economías pequeñas y orientadas a los ciudadanos en los próximos cien años, el cambio recién empieza.

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

China's commerce ministry warned yesterday (23nov07) that a slowing
US economy would trigger a drop in Chinese exports that would mark a
"turning point" for China's rapid economic growth.

A global economic slowdown stemming from problems in the US subprime
mortgage market and the resulting credit squeeze "will be the biggest
challenge to China's economy next year", a report from the ministry's
policy research department said.

The report is Beijing's first public comment on what repercussions it
expects from the global credit crisis and a sign that the government
does not support the view that Asian growth has "decoupled" from the US.

"If demand in the US drops further, Chinese exporters will be devastated
by a rapid and continuous fall in orders," the report said.

Exports account for more than a third of China's economic growth and 10
per cent of overall GDP, a radically different situation from just four
years ago, when exports contributed nothing to headline growth figures.

Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist for Citigroup, said: "I agree with
the government that a marked slowdown in the US would be very bad for

"We haven't seen over-capacity or a so-called hard landing in China
because it has been able to export all its excess capacity until now."

The ministry's report was pessimistic about the chances of avoiding a US
and global slowdown, pointing out that although central banks in the US,
Europe and Japan had taken numerous steps to alleviate the credit crisis
the situation had continued to deteriorate and "panic in the credit
market remains".

The US receives a fifth of all Chinese exports, making it the second
largest destination for Chinese-made goods after the European Union.

China's central bank estimates that every 1 per cent drop in US economic
growth translates into a 6 per cent fall in Chinese exports.

Exports to the US have slowed significantly since the start of the year,
dropping from a 20.4 per cent year-on-year rise in the first quarter to
a 15.6 per cent increase in the second. Growth fell to 12.4 per cent in
the third quarter following the eruption of subprime loan problems.

The ministry said a combination of falling US interest rates and rising
Chinese rates was limiting Beijing's ability to rein in soaring property
and stock market prices and inflation was running at its highest level
in a decade.

It added that continued turmoil in global financial markets could
encourage greater capital inflows to China, straining the country's
financial and regulatory system and increasing inflationary pressure.

While potentially devastating for Chinese exports, a US slowdown could
help reduce China's soaring trade surplus, which hit a monthly high of
$27bn (€18bn, £13bn) in October, having increased more than 59
per cent to $212.4bn in the first 10 months from a year earlier.

The US reported a $232.5bn trade deficit with China last year, its
biggest ever with any country.

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