miércoles, 5 de agosto de 2009

Hugo Chavez is afraid.

Colombian president had a unusual meeting with his Peruvian counterpart to form a common front against Hugo Chávez. The presence of U.S. soldiers at military bases in Colombia would be to head off a possible attack Venezuela
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By Cesar Reyna (reservamoral@yahoo.com)

Surprise visit of Colombian President Álvaro Uribe to Lima is part of a quickly tour to several South American countries to explain the scope of the agreement with the U.S. military forces. USA will use seven bases in its territory would not only be to conduct joint operations against drug traffickers and guerrillas, but to dissuade the Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez to make skirmishes at the border.

Chavez is not planning, if to be necessary, a large-scale invasion, but a conflict that had targeted in a determined zone like Peru-Ecuador conflict in the mid-nineties. The possibility of a Venezuelan incursion grow at the same level of Chavez loose control and legitimacy in his country, that is, the socialist model that seeks to impose. The failure to turn Venezuela into another Cuba would generate a lot of instability when approaching its end. In such a scenario is likely to try a military action in their desperation to maintain power. The Argentine military did anything comparable in the aftermath of the dictatorship Malvinas recovering to unite people, but as we all know, were humiliated by the British.

The regime in Caracas is experiencing its peak with the fall in oil prices and the overthrow of its ally Manuel Zelaya. Chavez should not feel very secure in power after the coup in Honduras. Yesterday was back in the adoption of the draft Media Law of Crimes by the harsh criticism he received from international agencies. It also had to go backwards in their attempt to intimidate the press to "condemn" the attack against Globovision, the leading television station in that country.

Since the Government announced the agreement with United States military, Hugo Chávez ordered the formation of urban militias were formed by thousands of armed civilians to combat the threat of American troops in neighboring Colombia. Chavez will not be wanting or resources as weapons bought Kalashnikov rifles and ammunition to Russia.

The meeting of Andean presidents serve to remind Chavez that Colombia is not isolated in the region. García Uribe and share the same economic ideology and hence are staunch opponents of Chavez. This would be the second meeting between the authorities of both countries as the foreign ministers of Colombia and Peru a few weeks ago discussed the dangers of militarization in Venezuela. The fear is that Chavez Uribe seek a confrontation to divert the internal tension, ie the questions that has been receiving due to the suppression of freedoms and the rounding up of the press and the opposition.

The majority of Colombians approve of U.S. military presence in their country because it believes that there are internal and external threats to justify it. The undeniable link Chavez with the FARC and its inflammatory rhetoric generated in a highly unstable state which seeks to pacify like ours.

Uribe hopes to convince to Michelle Bachelet, Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Fernando Lugo and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner that the mission of U.S. forces is not a concern for continental security, but rather a guarantee of peace.

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[1] In the case of President Evo Morales is deducted his failure as a diplomat and conciliator is a strong ally of Chavez.

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